The powers that be scrubbed the scheduled press conference this afternoon, so I got to sit down with all four coaches one by one and get their thoughts on the tournament selection committee and the exciting four-team field here in Houston. A few good 'ol Texas boys on hand for this one.
We'll start, however, with a brief word from yours truly. Feel free to skip to the quotes from the ones who will be calling the shots this weekend.
The pitching matchups for Friday are not too surprising - three of the four coaches picked their presumptive ace. The first game tomorrow will feature TCU's highly touted Jake Arrieta (9-3, 3.11) against Baylor senior Jeff Mandel (7-7, 4.57). In the second game, Prairie View A&M ace Matthew Chase (10-1, 3.48) will be opposed by Rice sophomore Matt Langwell (6-1, 1.91). Langwell is the only one not considered a staff ace, but he turned in Rice's best pitching performance in last week's Conference USA tournament, pitching 7.1 shutout innings in relief of the injured Ryne Tacker, shutting down a potent Memphis squad on only three hits.
This is a true regional, with two teams from the same metro area and all four teams in driving distance. That should make for a very exciting tournament, with four large fan bases on hand, none of whom are willing to take a back seat to any other Texas school.
You can check out raw stats on your own via these links:
Rice
TCU
Baylor
Prairie View
but I'll tell you what I know about these teams and what I expect this weekend.
Prairie View A&M (34-23)
The SWAC champion Panthers scared the crap out of Rice last year. To the selection committee, this was a gift to Rice as a No. 2 national seed - the team ranked lowest in the entire tournament by the RPI. But to the Owls, it is a scary reminder of past shaky openers - extra innings with McNeese State in 2003 and the shocking loss to Texas Southern in 2004 - and two recent walk-off wins against Prairie View (I anticipate dropping the A&M because I hate typing shift-F7, so let's just start now).
In last year's regional, Rice fell behind 5-1 in the early innings before rallying to tie the game with two runs in the eighth and winning it on a Josh Rodriguez single in the bottom of the ninth (recap). On April 3 of this year, Rice scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to win 5-4 (recap).
So why have the Panthers given Rice so much trouble? It starts with speed. The Panthers are ridiculously aggressive on the basepaths, with four 20-base stealers, including 41 steals from shortstop Michael Richard. In last year's game, Rice starter Craig Crow struggled with his control in part because so much of his attention was focused on baserunners.
Like most Division I teams, Prairie View has a few pitchers that are trouble for almost anyone in righthanders Chase and Wrandal Taylor. Taylor, more of an off-speed pitcher, faced Rice this year, but the more consistent Chase will pitch Friday.
Baylor (34-25)
The Bears, who reached the Big 12 Tournament championship game last week, could lay a strong claim to a No. 2 seed. A young team, Baylor has come on down the stretch and is 10-4 in its last 14 games. Two years removed from the College World Series and playing in its third Rice regional in seven years, the program is familiar with the setting and the magnitude of the tournament, but some of the players might not be.
After Mandel, who will pitch tomorrow, Baylor usually uses freshmen in its other starting spots, and their durability will be interesting to watch with the more experienced Randall Linebaugh and Nick Cassavecchia waiting in the wings.
At the plate, senior catcher Matt Czimskey had an outstanding season (1.094 OPS), and shortstop Beamer Weems is the team sparkplug. Freshman third baseman Raynor Campbell has also been solid. I really don't know, however, if the Bears' pitching staff can hold up in this regional. Even their ace, Mandel, lasted less than an inning against Kansas State May 18.
TCU (46-12)
I do not know that TCU is your typical pitching-oriented Texas club. The Horned Frogs won the Mountain West Conference Tournament last week, and the MWC is known for hitting more than pitching. TCU has almost its entire lineup in the .300-.333 range, but the biggest worry could be centerfielder and No. 3 hitter Keith Conlon, who is questionable for the tournament with a hamstring injury.
TCU's pitching does make it stand out from its MWC counterparts, and Arrieta - one of the most eligible college righthanders in the draft - will start things off tomorrow. Junior college transfer Chris Johnson has been almost as good as Arrieta to the tune of an 11-2 record and 3.89 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio indicates he is a pitch-to-contact guy. No. 3 starter Chance Corgan, a Texas A&M transfer, has given up 13 earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched over his last two starts, so it will be interesting to see who Jim Schlossnagle turns to for a third game. Closer Sam Demel, from Houston suburb Spring, has lights-out stuff and has walked only 15 batters this season.
Rice (49-12)
The presumptive favorite as the No. 2 national seed and Conference USA champion and as a College World Series participant last year, the Owls should win this regional. But they got handed a moderately tough road.
Typically based around pitching, Rice does not have a dominant starter as in years past, especially with the injury last week to Tacker, who Wayne Graham said is "very limited" this weekend.
Pitching in any one game could be an issue, but pitching depth should be a plus for Rice, with Sam Houston State transfer Langwell on Friday and freshman Ryan Berry on Saturday. Rice has two experienced starters behind them in Joe Savery and Chris Kelley, while the bullpen is very deep in lefthanders Cole St.Clair, the closer, and Bobby Bramhall. Scott Lonergan and Mike Ojala are the primary righty options.
At the plate, Rice has swung the bats well lately with the exception of its 9 a.m. tournament game against Memphis. Conference USA Tournament MVP Aaron Luna is the most important hitter in the lineup (1.084 OPS), but junior shortstop Brian Friday will likely set the tone for the rest of the offense from the top of the lineup. Rice will platoon at third base and in right field and has solid depth if it should be forced into the losers' bracket.
Okay, enough from me. Let's hear what the coaches had to say today:
Michael Robertson, Prairie View A&M
on his team's close calls with Rice:
"It's hard to overlook it, but I think that we all realize that just playing it close is not good enough. You really haven't accomplished anything unless you win a game. We've got to figure out a way to win those close ballgames against schools like Rice, Baylor and TCU - it'd be a big feather in our cap to get a victory. The kids are confident anyways, because we just appear to play well in big ballgames on a championship level, and that's what most coaches like to see - that the team comes together at the end of the season when everything counts the most."
on the difference between his teams from 2006 and 2007:
"We are a different-type ballclub than last year, and I think a lot of people don't realize that. We're actually in a position now where we can interchange our lineups, and we weren't in a position to do that last year. That's probably the biggest thing is that we've been using more of a combination of our talent to add up to the 34 wins. Everybody has had a piece of the pie, but one thing that has been consistent is our starting pitching - Chase and Taylor have been consistent over the last three years."
on positive signs to look for:
"If I see kids putting the ball in play early, then I know we've got a chance to make some things happen. That's always going to be a key for us, because we play fast, so that's one of the things we've been instituting in practice - to make sure we make consistent contact and not try to lift the ball and just try to make an effort to get on base and continue to do what we do best, and that's play the short game. Do some hitting and running, some fake bunt slash swings, and whatever it takes ... we're trying to get guys on, get 'em over and get 'em in."
Steve Smith, Baylor
on choosing his starting pitchers:
"It will depend on who we play. I think that if you lose game one, then you can play to win the next game or you can play to win the tournament. We'll play to win the tournament, which means it'll depend on who we play. I don't know that you necessarily run your No. 2 out there in the next game."
on his young team's evolution:
"Most of our youth is position players. At the beginning of the year, in the first month or so, we were striking out at an alarming rate. As the year has gone on, those guys have gotten better and better. Some of our seniors have gotten better, too. ... We've really evolved into the same kind of team that we've normally been, which is one that's as good as we pitch. If Jeff pitches well, then we'll have a chance to win, because I think we'll swing it, and we'll play defense. We're not going to be good enough to overcome a real poor pitching performance, I don't think."
on the tournament selection committee:
"I have a lot of opinions about that kind of thing. Not just seedings, but areas and how the whole tournament's done. I don't know that it would serve me real well to expound on those things. Certainly there are some fair questions that could be asked that have nothing to do with us. To be honest with you, I would have real questions if I was coaching Rice as a No. 2 national seed, given that they're paired up with a regional that's got arguably a No. 9 or a No. 10 national seed." (referring to Texas A&M)
"It's really interesting to me that for years, the folks in the North have claimed a geographic bias because of weather, etc. There's obviously some truth to that, particularly at the beginning of the year. I think at the end of the year, there's a geographic bias as well, but it's not against the North. It's against the South and the West. I hope the day will come when we reach the point in our sport when we're not seeding geographically, we're seeding nationally."
Jim Schlossnagle, TCU
on his team's dramatic MWC Tournament victory:
"In baseball terms, that was a while ago - not quite a week. ... Our guys have had a day-to-day approach, and I don't know if it'll have any carryover. Other than the fact that it happened in the bottom of the ninth inning, and we've done that several times this year, so you get used to expecting to win. I think we have a veteran team that has a lot of confidence and thinks they can win every game they play."
on playing in Texas:
"I was disappointed we didn't get the opportunity to host, because I felt like we were deserving. Not because anybody else was undeserving, but I felt like we had done what we needed to do to have that opportunity. Whether we come here or go to Texas or A&M ... when you're in the state of Texas, and you're a Division I school, if you're going to get to Omaha, you're probably going to have to go through one of the more traditional programs in the country, which is what this place is. We have great respect for Rice, Baylor, and Prairie View, and it's going to be a challenge no matter where we go in this region."
on postseason baseball:
"Most of the time during the season, the other team will do things to lose the game more than you do things to win the game. When you play in the postseason, you don't have that as much. Everybody fields the ball well, everybody throws strikes, everybody has a good bullpen. So then it comes down to who can get the clutch hit and who can most play like they have during the regular season and handle the environment."
on the proposed rule to make four-year transfers sit out a season:
"It doesn't affect us any more than it would affect any other team. I think if you look across most successful Division I teams, I'd be willing to bet we have fewer than many other schools. We're a small, private school in a state with larger state universities. Up until now, kids have had the opportunity to take advantage of that rule. I'm excited about the transfer rule leaving, because we've lost our fair share of great players just as much as we have had players come in. It'll be nice to have the opportunity to recruit and sign and coach a guy for three or four years."
Wayne Graham, Rice
on Friday starter Matt Langwell:
"Langwell in a way has been our best pitcher for the last three weeks. In fact, he has the best ERA on the team. He throws strikes, he's a good fielder of his position ... and Tacker is very limited this weekend. We think that Langwell is a good fit for Prairie View and, if we're able to win, that Berry's a good fit for either team."
on facing Prairie View's running game:
"I think you have ordinary cautions - you try to hold runners and vary your tempo and you're not long to home plate. If you let it affect your pitches, which we did last year, there's where you run into trouble. You can't steal first base, so if you can keep them off first base, that's the primary thing you want to do. You want to do the reasonable things to control the running game."
on the tournament selection committee and the strength of the Houston regional:
"It's hard to judge. I think it's above average. I haven't seen a lot of the teams over the year, but I did note that there were some [regionals] I did not think were very strong. Wichita State's regional is strong, because Wichita State's got to play New Orleans - and New Orleans has a good ballclub - in the first game. I think Mississippi did not get an idea draw when they got Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State has a good ballclub. So those were a couple of the things that I noted."