UA-OM: How the West Will Be Won
By Jean Neuberger - May 17, 2007
The last week of the regular season is upon us, and as SEC teams scramble for positions in the conference tournament, as well as NCAA Regionals, the marquis series is here at Baum Stadium, where Dave Van Horn's Arkansas Razorbacks look to capture the SEC West crown. Standing in the way are Mike Bianco's Ole Miss Rebels, who have taken 10 of the last 13 games with the Hogs.
Nine weeks of conference play have brought us to these three games, as
not only the SEC West, but possibly the overall SEC race as well, will
be decided here in Fayetteville. Arkansas (37-16) and Ole Miss (33-20)
are locks for the NCAA Tournament, but both are fighting for regionals
and seeding this weekend, besides the small fact that the division
title is at stake.
Speaking of regionals, let's check out the resumes of these two squads.
Arkansas (37-16, 17-10 SEC)
RPI: 15
Home Record: 20-6
Away Record: 17-9
Neutral Site: 0-1
Great Wins: Took two from Vanderbilt (8-7, 8-3), swept Kansas,
Tennessee and Florida, Wichita State (10-2)
Horrible Losses: lost one of three to Louisiana Tech (2-9), Troy
(8-13), and Illinois State (10-12)
Last 10 Games: 5-5
Ole Miss (33-20, 14-13 SEC)
RPI: 14
Home Record: 22-10
Away Record: 9-9
Neutral Site: 2-1
Great Wins: 1 of 3 with Vanderbilt (6-1), 2 of 3 vs. S. Carolina (8-5,
6-0), 2 of 3 vs. UCLA (8-0, 4-1)
Horrible Losses: lost two of three to Wright State (0-1, 2-5), lost
one of three to Evansville (1-2)
Last 10 Games: 5-5
Are these two teams worthy of regionals? Most say Arkansas is, while
Ole Miss is still up in the air.
For Arkansas to ensure themselves of a regional, winning this series
is what it takes. Along with a team's overall record and RPI, the NCAA
looks hard at attendance figures at each site. The NCAA takes 85
percent of the profits from every regional, but if the 85 percent from
a regional isn't over $35,000, the NCAA will have the host school pony
up the rest. While this will definitely hurt some smaller schools (and
smaller stadiums), it will only benefit Arkansas, who draws massive
numbers to Baum Stadium each game. It'll also help Ole Miss, who also
draws well, but the Rebels need not only to win this series; they'll
need to make some noise at the SEC Tournament to secure a host site.
Let's take a look at the current SEC Tournament standings.
1) Vanderbilt (19-8 - SEC East champion) Magic number to win SEC: 2
2) Arkansas (17-10) Magic number to win SEC West: 2
3) Miss. State (14-11)
4) South Carolina (15-12)
5) Ole Miss (14-13, tie-breaker over Florida)
6) Florida (14-13)
7) Alabama (13-14)
8) Kentucky (12-14-1, tie-breaker over LSU)
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9) LSU (12-14-1)
10) Tennessee (11-14)
11) Georgia (10-17)
12) Auburn (8-19)
Vanderbilt and Arkansas are the only two teams that have secured a
berth so far, and with every team but Auburn eligible to make the
tournament; this will be a huge final weekend of baseball.
Should Arkansas sweep the Rebels, and LSU take 2 of 3 from Vandy, the
Hogs will grab a piece of the SEC title, as well as the #1 seed. The
Hogs could also get the #1 seed and share of the crown should they
take 2 of 3 from Ole Miss, and Vandy miraculously gets swept by the
Tigers.
Meanwhile, we'll keep an eye on Miss. State as well, as they have a
shot to snatch the SEC West title from Arkansas. Should State sweep
and Ole Miss win the series, the Bulldogs will win the division title.
Arkansas, however, will try to win the title outright this weekend.
So we're all set for baseball here in Fayetteville. Let's look at
tonight's starters.
Arkansas sends Clemens Award semifinalist LHP Nick Schmidt (9-2, 2.95
ERA) to the mound tonight. Schmidt is coming off his worst outing this
season, as Alabama roughed him up in a surprising 10-0 rout. Schmidt
has worked all week with UA pitching coach Dave Jorn, and the
Razorbacks feel confident keeping him in the ace slot. Meanwhile, Ole
Miss will send RHP Will Kline (5-2, 3.79 ERA) to the mound. Kline has
already faced Arkansas in a non-conference matchup this season in
Minnesota. Kline got a no-decision, giving up just two runs and four
hits in a 5-4 Rebel win.
It should be a packed house, even with graduation ceremonies for local
high schools going on tonight in Fayetteville. The guys from Going
Yard should experience a great atmosphere and great baseball from
these two teams here at Baum Stadium.
Posted by Jean Neuberger at 07:17 PM on May 17, 2007
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