Who takes the title in Omaha?

By Chris Lee - June 15, 2007

It's been a tournament of remarkable surprises so far, but I think that Omaha is where things will start to level out. We were asked to submit our picks, and I only saw three teams in person this year--Arizona State, Mississippi State and Rice--this year, yet I feel pretty confident in picking Wayne Graham's Owls to take home another title.

Why? Three reasons: Rice's ability to consistently get on base, to pitch as well as anyone in America and a hot streak that's unmatched by any team in America.

Let's start with the hitting. The Owls won't necessarily frighten anyone with their big bats (only two players slugging over .500) but what they do is wear pitchers down with the ability to work opposing arms deep in the count. Every hitter in the lineup by Diego Seastrunk have an on-base percentage over .400, and that enables the Owls to scatter men all over the diamond until the big hit comes.

And putting that kind of pressure on pitching makes other teams go to the 'pen, and even in Omaha, many teams don't have more than four or five good arms on the team, period. So, that patience will help Rice get some looks against six and seven-ERA pitchers as the games and tourney move along, where the odds really favor Rice.

Second, no one has got the mix of arms the Owls have. They've got a staff ERA of 2.83, and about eight quality arms who saw significant action this year (and a few more waiting behind them, just in case). They'll also have Cole St. Clair, one of their better arms, ready for Omaha. St. Clair threw just 21 innings all year after suffering a shoulder injury lifting weights, and the dominant lefty closer, who appeared on Team USA last summer, should be rounding into form as things get started in Omaha.

If that's not enough, consider this: The Owls have lost TWICE since a March 27 defeat at Texas, and one of those was an April 14 loss at Houston. Yes, that's winning 36 of 38 games in that stretch, including 27 of the last 28. Granted, Conference USA is not the ACC or the SEC, but there are some reasonably-good teams there, and no one challenged themselves out of the league like Rice.

Finally, baseball's a funny game where teams can lose or win a number of close games and allow their record to obscure how good a team they generally are. Assuming a team doesn't load up on patsies (and the Owls didn't), a team's overall runs scored and given up are a great indicator of how good a team they really are. Rice passes the test there, too, having scored over twice as many runs as their opponents (477 to 233).

If I had to go with a team besides the Owls, it would be Arizona State. Brett Wallace and the Sun Devils have what may be America's best offense (they slug .537 as a team), and a good rotation of Josh Satow, Mike Leake and Brian Flores. But teams need pitching depth to win a tourney like Omaha, and although those three can all go nine innings, I just don't see the depth behind them.

And, I'd be remiss if I left out North Carolina. The Tar Heels are built similarly to Rice, as they get on base and beat you with a lot of hitters who have some power, and a deep pitching staff as well. But I'll give the edge to the Owls here, too, because I don't think that the 'Heels have the arms at the very top of the rotation like Rice.

So there you have it: I like the Owls to be the last ones standing in Omaha this week in a tourney where five of the eight national seeds didn't make it to Omaha.